The return of fundamentals?

The Wintermute Ventures team is back from @consensus_hk. From @evtsk17’s conversations with investors and founders, the most consistent signal was a market that feels more cautious, with fewer people willing to pretend they know what the next obvious wave is. The upside is that conversations are getting more specific, and it is easier to separate real signals from recycled narratives.

What we heard:

✶ **Sentiment is down, and clear catalysts are hard to name **Most people do not see an obvious near-term catalyst that could reverse sentiment, and many investors are struggling to articulate what the next major crypto-native wave is beyond a small handful of obvious areas. Founders feel the shift. Several said they wished they had raised earlier, because the bar is higher and investors are demanding more traction before committing.

✶ Capital rotation toward AI equities is evident,** particularly in Asia **Many “liquid funds” are actually family offices and proprietary capital rather than strictly fund-mandated. This group has rotated toward momentum in AI, with public AI equities as their default new trade. However, this looks more like momentum behaviour than a general change in crypto thesis.

✶ **Tokens are in an identity crisis outside the majors **Outside major assets, few people are excited about alts. The deeper issue is that tokens have lost a clear identity as a credible mechanism for value accrual and alignment. Token launches are increasingly viewed as a distraction because mercenary farmers are loud and churn quickly, making it harder for launches to signal durable value or alignment. A common discussion point for founders is to stop copying old playbooks and instead design for real users and long-term alignment.

✶ **Opportunity is centred on fundamentals and defensibility **There is a clear bias toward businesses with revenue, licensing, and distribution moats. There is still a belief that crypto ventures can deliver the best 10x outcomes compared with traditional tech, because traditional tech has become slower and more consensus-driven. At the same time, it is getting harder to stand out in a few crowded categories, with yield wrappers widely seen as saturated and hard to differentiate, and prediction markets still seeing new entrants without much new differentiation. Options markets remain interesting, but many think infrastructure and edge dynamics are not ready yet.

✶ **LatAm keeps coming up as an attractive region **The LatAm region has seen clear PMF and is moving towards heavier regulation. The winners are teams that can navigate country-by-country rules and displace traditional banking rails. The category is crowded, so differentiation is less about a pure stablecoin angle and more about the combination of regulatory competence, connectivity, and execution.

Despite weakening sentiment, it didn't seem like people had given up on crypto. Rather, expectations had simply risen. Investors now demand real evidence (nature is healing). Founders face pressure to focus on distribution and acquiring genuine users. Tokens face stricter scrutiny around value capture and incentive alignment. From our perspective at Wintermute Ventures, we stay optimistic. These resets are difficult but healthy, and they are when the most resilient companies led by teams with genuine long-term belief are forged.

Missed connecting with us in Hong Kong? Wintermute Ventures remains actively invested in this space, and we'd be happy to hear from you!

→ Reach out: https://www.wintermute.com/contact/ventures